Nov 9, 2025

BTC Technical Outlook (Personal View)

Last post, I analyzed all the macro signals I could find. That was the why.

Today’s about the where.

Conclusion first: 106K is the decision point.

Pic below is my personal

$BTC

setup, based on confluence across RSI, MACD, and Fib structure.

BTC likely pushes toward the 106K zone before one of two outcomes unfolds:

- If 106K rejects, price may dip to the $94K–$98K range (between Fib 0.5–0.618) before reversing.

- If 106K holds, the pre-Christmas pump could begin, with no major correction likely until after the holidays.

Breakdown👇

1. BTC is currently trading around $102K, testing the lower Bollinger Band.

2. This level has historically aligned with local exhaustion zones during mid-cycle pullbacks.

3. RSI sits around 37, inside the emotional oversold zone, signaling growing downside fatigue.

4. MACD histogram remains bearish, but red bars are narrowing, showing momentum loss.

When price hits the lower Bollinger Band while RSI stays below 40 and MACD begins to flatten, it often precedes short-term relief rallies or even full local bottoms.

This setup mirrors previous confluence bottoms (see green boxes), where multiple exhaustion signals fired together.

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Confluence Bottom Zones👇

1. In those green-box areas, there wasn’t a clean textbook divergence.

2. Instead, multiple exhaustion indicators aligned and created a resonance effect.

- RSI dipped into the mid-30s, signaling emotional overselling.

- MACD histogram expanded sharply, marking a momentum climax.

3. Each time this combination appeared, BTC printed a local bottom and reversed shortly after.

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Divergence Example (March–April 2025)👇

(See arrows area in pic)

1. This was the clean, textbook reversal.

2. Price made lower lows while both RSI and MACD formed higher lows, a classic bullish divergence.

3. That setup triggered a sharp V-shaped rally and kicked off the next major bullish leg.

Right now, we don’t see that structure yet. The market still looks like a momentum flush, not a confirmed reversal.

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Trader’s Take👇

1. I’m not a “pure TA” trader.

2. I don’t worship indicators, but I use them as one of many lenses to gauge sentiment and momentum.

3. Trading is about blending signals, not marrying any of them.

4. Each move should still align with macro data, market positioning, and overall sentiment.

5. Understanding how confluence and divergence shape reversals helps you read the market’s rhythm.

6. Because the market rarely bottoms on patterns. It bottoms on exhaustion.

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Final Note👇

The crowd is divided right now.

Half shouting “bear market incoming.”

Half claiming “bull run just cooling off.”

The truth is both can be right, depending on your timeframe.

That’s why you need to build your own thesis and not follow narratives blindly.

So, what’s your target for BTC’s real cycle bottom? 👇