Everyone knows crypto is “macro-driven” now. But most are still confused about how it actually works, which macro variables matter, or why price reacts the way it does. These are my brief insights towards crypto pricing in this cycle, and what macro factors would be a red flag for crypto in 2026 👇 To understand what’s driving crypto prices today, it helps to start with some history. The early crypto cycles were driven by a very different kind of demand. A lot of it came from

BTC has broken below the W FVG. The view from the November 18 post remains unchanged — now looking at 74k. If 74k breaks as well, I’ll turn bearish. But being bearish doesn’t mean it drops all the time — if you’re stuck holding, just run at the first small bounce. I’ll say it again. I’ve already prepared my dry powder to bottom-fish BTC at 30–40k next year. Soon there will be another FTX, another Luna, another Three Arrows Capital. Truth is, if you prepare in advance, a bear

The BTC structure has broken. A strategy adjustment is needed as soon as possible. In last week's post, I mentioned taking profits at 106K and warned about the risk of a wick. Who would have thought that "wick" would turn into a structural reversal? 😭 This once again confirms the saying: In a hellish market, no one makes perpetual profits. Being able to capture any swing is something to be grateful for. Whatever you do, don't stubbornly hold against the trend. This market wo

To be fair, a market this cooperative really isn't something you see every day 🤣 Right now, the market is basically following the K-line path outlined in my post from a few days ago. The key $BTC level of 106k—last time I said you have to take profits in batches on the bottom long positions, and you could also open short-term hedge shorts. Now the drop into the 90k range is also within expectations. So what should you do now? 👇 94–96k is your DCA range—lay out your entries

I just mentioned yesterday that $BTC's key level of 106k was critical. Who would have thought that in just 10 hours, the price would fly from 102k to 106k! Now, what's the outlook? The views below are divided into three parts 👇 Macro conditions this week The positive impact of the US government's return to work is already being priced in. The crypto market is moving faster than expected, with a sharper rally than anticipated. However, the positive factors in the US stock mar

BTC Technical Outlook (Personal View) Last post, I analyzed all the macro signals I could find. That was the why. Today’s about the where. Conclusion first: 106K is the decision point. Pic below is my personal $BTC setup, based on confluence across RSI, MACD, and Fib structure. BTC likely pushes toward the 106K zone before one of two outcomes unfolds: - If 106K rejects, price may dip to the $94K–$98K range (between Fib 0.5–0.618) before reversing. - If 106K holds, the pre-Ch

Everyone's yelling bear market. I spent three days digging through every macro signal I could find. The data tells a completely different story. Here's a full breakdown👇 1. The Fed cut rates twice this year. Quantitative tightening ends Dec 1st, meaning the liquidity drain stops. 2. Inflation's cooling, dollar's weakening, and institutions are buying while retail panics. 3. The only real worry left is the government shutdown, and once that clears, we're likely getting a reli

My latest market opinions: We’re in a phase of “fake” volume and “fake” momentum. - If you’re an “indicator” trader, you’re being baited. - Your stop losses are being hunted daily to grab liquidity. Same rinse cycle every few days. Sideways price → sudden volume spike → quick dump → repeat. Classic algorithmic bait for indicator traders chasing volume upticks. It’s a liquidity rinse cycle. Ways to play it: 1️⃣ Scalp the chop. 2️⃣ Set low swing longs & wait for the real move (

I wrote about this in September, and now in October I’m really scared—because I felt the market was headed for a -15~20% drop. But what came was even harsher, with altcoins getting crushed by -90%. On Friday, Trump signaled tariff news, clearly testing the waters while leaving himself some room to adjust the pace. The S&P’s reaction was too intense, so next week he’ll likely step in to calm things down and ease market sentiment. Then, once the reassurance is in place, he’ll d

Why the next few weeks will be CHAOTIC, but I’m still bullish into year-end. - The Fed cut 25bps but Powell’s tone was HAWKISH. - He called it “risk management,” NOT the start of an easing cycle. - Only a few small cuts through 2026. - Not what the market wanted → maximum uncertainty = volatility fuel. We're entering a phase of extreme VOLATILITY. The market is now hunting for liquidations. Every data point will be overread: - Good news = bad news (strong data = fewer cuts) -

The market’s rising in a weird, almost artificial way… Crazy ETF inflows. FOMC just a week away. Is altseason finally here? Will $BTC break above $130K next month — or is it setting up for a 10% correction? 🔍 Here’s my macro + crypto outlook for July to September 2025: 1. Pre-FOMC Drift (July 22–30) • Market sentiment rising: Fear & Greed (F&G) Index ~70–75 (Greed increases). • 📈 $BTC ranges between 115k–125k ​​→ Cooling near ATH, no major breakdown yet. • ETH/BTC bouncin